In this study, Vincent Moseti, Lisa Biber-Freudenberger and Jan Börner (Project A05 “Future Roads”) investigate in how far politics influences where roads are built in Kenya. Their findings suggest that road investments are more likely to go to areas that supported the ruling coalition or had close elections, suggesting electoral incentives shape infrastructure decisions despite reforms meant to ensure fair distribution.
Votes for roads: Electoral motives of road infrastructure development in Kenya
By Vincent Moseti, Lisa Biber-Freudenberger and Jan Börner
Abstract
Road investments are intended to promote economic development and enhance access to social services. Ideally, such infrastructure projects should be prioritized based on objective assessments of local needs and development potential. However, political considerations often influence public road investment decisions, favoring specific electoral groups. This study analyzes the role of electoral motives in road development in Kenya using a hybrid modeling approach and regression discontinuity design (RDD) on a spatial panel dataset (2002−2023). Our findings reveal both correlational and causal evidence of preferential road allocation to constituencies that (1) supported ruling coalition candidates in presidential and parliamentary elections and (2) experienced closely contested elections. Despite constitutional reforms aimed at equitable resource distribution, electoral dynamics continue to shape road development. To mitigate political influence in road allocation, we recommend further devolution of road development responsibilities, increased transparency and adherence to needs-based expansion of road infrastructure.
Reference
Moseti, V., Biber-Freudenberger, L., Börner, J. 2026. Votes for roads: Electoral motives of road infrastructure development in Kenya, Journal of Transport Geography, Volume 133, 2026, 104619, DOI
