CRC TRR 228 Project B03
Violent Futures?
Contestations along carbon frontiers in East Africa
B03 Violent Futures
Vision
Our vision is to demonstrate how carbon credit projects can be co-designed with communities in a meaningful and participatory manner to overcome local conflicts by transforming extractive frontier ventures into inclusive climate finance models that are responsive to local knowledge and grievances.
Project Summary
With the global urgency to address climate change, carbon-credits schemes are promoted as a market-based tool to reduce uncertainties about the future. Due to its rich natural resources and ecological diversity, Africa is identified as the new “frontier” of carbon-credit markets. The CRC project B03 “Violent Futures” examines the impact of future-oriented carbon-credit projects on local conflicts in Kenya and Tanzania using the frontier approach. B03 conceptualized the frontier approach in the first phase of the CRC to address the linkage between future-making and violent conflicts and subsequently applied it to large-scale infrastructure and conservation projects in the second phase of the CRC. Our research during the second phase revealed the increasing relevance of carbon-credit projects in East Africa. This is why we decided to focus on carbon-credit projects in the conservation sector in the third phase of the CRC, by putting an actor-oriented perspective at the centre of our frontier approach. We aim to understand how frontier entrepreneurs – a) private companies; b) state agencies; c) (international) non-government organizations ((I)NGOs) – are promoting and conducting carbon-credit projects in locations inhabited by marginalized people such as pastoralists, forest dwellers, and small-scale farmers. Our hypothesis is that the type of frontier entrepreneur is decisive for the implementation of carbon-credit projects as well as for the likelihood of unintended consequences: at the one end of the spectrum, carbon-credit projects are likely to intensify violent conflicts, if frontier entrepreneurs ignore the needs of local communities and take advantage of a state of exception. On the other end of the spectrum, carbon-credit projects will be accepted by local communities when their livelihoods and future aspirations are considered accordingly. To test our hypothesis, we will carry out in-depth field research in three concrete field sites in Kenya and Tanzania where carbon-credit projects were implemented. We will apply qualitative research methods such as interviews, focus-group discussions, and participatory observations. In addition, we aim to carry out a horizontal study scrutinizing available data on carbon-credit projects and conflicts in East Africa to understand to what extent the in-depth results of our case studies can be generalized. Next to its research activities, B03 will, through bicc and together with PLAAS and IDOS, facilitate and coordinate the policy-dialogue activities of the CRC.
Research Regions: Kenya, Tanzania
Key Questions for 3rd Phase
Overarching research question:
- To what extent and how do different types of entrepreneurs produce carbon frontiers?
Sub-questions:
- What approaches do different frontier entrepreneurs employ to establish carbon credit projects?
- To what extent do frontier entrepreneurs mitigate or intensify direct and structural violence?
- How do carbon-credit projects need to be conceptualized to prevent violence and to over come frontier constellations?
Methods
Interviews, focus-group discussions, ethnographic observations, document analysis
Key Findings from Phase II
Key Findings from Phase I
We conducted qualitative field research along the LAPSSET corridor in Northern Kenya. Our main areas of research were the counties of Turkana, Samburu, Baringo, and Isiolo. With respect to our concept of frontiers, the following findings are important:
• State of exception: Large parts of the rangelands are trust land, administered by the counties on behalf of pastoral communities. It can therefore be acquired by the state with fewer legal constraints than titled freehold land.
• Frontier habitus: A ‘frontier habitus’ of planners that disregards existing social orders led to fears of marginalization, and loss of livelihood options among pastoral communities. The “dreamscape” of planners, however, also drew in different parts of the local population, who aspired towards venturing into agriculture, ranging, and new businesses.
• Dispossessions: Already rumours and mere announcements concerning the LAPSSET corridor exacerbated social inequalities through actual or threatened displacements and the reduction of rangelands.
• Blurring the lines: The new infrastructure development in combination with the presence of wildlife conservancies led to a blurring of the lines between armed state actors, the private sector, and security forces at the community level.
• Direct violence: Repeated quarrels over hoped-for benefits from the LAPSSET corridor have led to a reinforcement of ethnic boundaries accompanied by politically incited violence along county borders.
In a nutshell, the partially violent competition over land and boundaries and the blurring of the lines between state, private, and community structures of organized violence indicate an ongoing process of negotiation about social orders along the LAPSSET corridor.
Cooperation within the CRC
With A01 on exchanging findings on soil-carbon sequestration practices as well as on community-based rangeland management. With A04 on investigating conservation-related conflicts in times of climatic uncertainty and rapid agricultural change. With C02 on how renewable energy financing and associated industrial development intersect with carbon-credit schemes. With C03 on how imaginaries of soil health and conservation are communicated and contested in Tanzanian carbon projects and on investigating how “green imaginaries,” such as sustainable grazing, are promoted or resisted in Northern Kenya. Contribution to the development of the exhibition project and to the activities of the CRC policy-dialogue activities.
Publications
Aalders, T., Guma, P. K., Owino, E., Tups, G. 2025. Under construction – towards critical perspectives on infrastructuring and infrastructured labour in Africa. Territory, Politics, Governance, 14(2), 191–204. DOI
Bachmann, J., Mkutu, K., & Owino, E. A. 2024. (Re-) moving earth, building Kenya–The politics of sand extraction in Kedong. Geoforum, 149, 103949. DOI
Bond, J. & Mkutu, K. 2018. ‘Exploring the hidden costs of human-wildlife conflict in northern Kenya’, African Studies Review, vol. 6, no.1, pp. 33-54. DOI
Chambo, M. J., Massoi, L. W. 2026. Pastoralism reorganised: Maasai resilience and governance in the shadow of mega-infrastructure in Tanzania. Cogent Social Sciences, 12(1). DOI
Chomboko, D., Theodory, T., Brüntrup, M., Shillingi, V., Kativu, S. N., & Hornidge, A. K. 2025. Indigenous knowledge for sustainable food security in Turiani division, Tanzania. Cogent Social Sciences, 11(1). DOI
Grawert, E. 2019. ‘Between “strong institutions“and the “political marketplace”: layers of land conflicts in Northern Kenya’, in FriEnt Studies, vol. 7, Land and Conflict Prevention. How integrated solutions can help achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, pp. 42-45, viewed 28 September 2020. Link
Greiner, C., Klagge, B., Owino, E. A. 2023. The political ecology of geothermal development: Green sacrifice zones or energy landscapes of value? Energy Research & Social Science, 99, 103063. DOI
Kalvelage, L., Bollig, M., Grawert, E., Hulke, C., Meyer, M., Mkutu, K., Müller-Koné , M., Revilla Diez, J. 2021. ‘Territorialising Conservation: Community-based Approaches in Kenya and Namibia’, Conservation and Society. Access Link
Korf, B., Raeymaekers, T., Schetter, C. & Watts, M. 2018. ‘Geographies of limited statehood’, in T Risse, T. Börzel & A Draude (eds), The Oxford handbook of governance and limited statehood, Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp. 167-187. DOI
Mkutu, K. 2023. The frontier on the doorstep: development and conflict dynamics in the southern rangelands of Kenya, Journal of Eastern African Studies, DOI
Mkutu, K. 2022. Anticipation and contestation along the LAPSSET infrastructure corridor in Kenya. Nomadic Peoples, 26(2), 190–218. DOI
Mkutu, K. 2020. ‘Security dynamics in conservancies in Kenya: The case of Isiolo County’, BICC Working Paper series, no. 3, 2020. viewed 28 September 2020. Link
Mkutu, K. 2019. ‘Pastoralists, politics and development projects. Understanding the layers of armed conflict in Isiolo County, Kenya’, BICC Working Paper series, no. 7, 2019. viewed 28 September 2020. Link
Mkutu, K., Anderson, D., Lugusa, K., & Owino, E. 2022. Water Governance, Institutions and Conflicts in the Maasai Rangelands. The Journal of Environment & Development, 1-26. Link
Mkutu, K., Mdee, A. 2020. ‘Conservancies, conflict and dispossession: the winners and losers of oil exploration in Turkana, Kenya’, African Studies Review, pp. 1-27. DOI
Mkutu, K., Mkutu, T., Marani, M. 2019. ‘New oil developments in a remote area: environmental justice and participation in Turkana, Kenya’, The Journal of Environment & Development, vol. 28, no. 3, pp. 223-252. DOI
Mkutu, K., Müller-Koné, M., Owino, A.E. , 2021. ‘Future visions, present conflicts: the ethnicized politics of anticipation surrounding an infrastructure corridor in northern Kenya, Journal of Eastern African Studies. DOI.
Mkutu, K., Owino, E. A., Schetter, C., Mkutu, T. 2025. Double Gain, Double Loss: Property Rights and Dispossession Surrounding Kenya’s Rail Project. Journal of World Affairs 1(1) 121-137. DOI
Müller-Koné, M., Grawert, E. & Schetter, C. 2020. ‘Zwischen Naturschutz und Gewaltkonflikten: Conservancies in Nordkenia‘, Geographische Rundschau, vol. 72, no. 5, pp. 16-21. Link
Müller-Koné, M., Kioko, E. 2024. Frontier dynamics: Cross-cutting ties, conflict and contestation on agricultural and conservation hinterlands of Lake Naivasha’, in Kuiper, G., Kioko, E. & Bollig, M. (eds). Agricultural Intensification, Environmental Conservation, Conflict and Co-existence at Lake Naivasha, Kenya. Leiden: Brill, pp.251-278. DOI
Müller-Koné, M., Mkutu, K. 2026. Settlements as dispossession: Forest conservation and frontiers’ violence in Mau Forest, Kenya, World Development,
Volume 200, 2026, DOI
Müller-Mahn, D., Owino, E. A., Theodory, T. F. 2026. Ghost airports: the boom and bust of large infrastructure projects. Third World Quarterly, 47(1), 221–238. DOI
Navarro, R., Saleh, L., Owino, E. A. 2025. Pastoral Conflict on the Greener Grass? Exploring the Climate-Conflict Nexus in the Karamoja Cluster. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 105287. DOI
Ndunda, E., Mkutu, K. 2022. Exploring peacebuilding potentials in northwestern Kenya. The case of West Pokot.” in Ohta, I., & Nyamnjoh, F. B. (Eds.). (2022). African Potentials: Bricolage, Incompleteness and Lifeness. African Books Collective, pp.119-13
Okwany, C., & Owino, E. A. 2024. Transformation of organized Violence from a natural Resource management perspective: A comparative case of Samburu and Isiolo counties, Kenya. Journal of Autonomy and Security Studies. DOI
Owino, E. A. 2026. Assemblages of terror and the policing of settlement boundaries: Devolution and the production of order in northern Kenya,
Journal of Rural Studies, Volume 124, 2026, DOI
Schetter, C. & Müller-Koné, M. 2020. ‘Frontier – ein Gegenbegriff zur Grenze?’, in D Gerst, M. Klessmann & H Krämer (eds) Handbuch Grenzforschung, Frankfurt: Nomos, pp. 235-248. Link
Project News
How Violence has Evolved into a Political Technique of Territorial Control in Northern Kenya
Railway Construction and Changing Conflict Dynamics in Kilosa, Tanzania
New Study Sheds Light on Conservation, Eviction, and Conflict in Kenya’s Mau Forest
New Special Issue Explores Infrastructure, Labour, and Power in African Contexts
When Airports Become Ghosts: New Study Examines Failed Mega-Projects in Africa and Europe
Team Members
Prof. Dr. Conrad Schetter
Project Leader
Bonn International Centre for Conflict Studies
