Publication: Translating narratives in the Kilombero catchment, Tanzania

The Kilombero wetland in Tanzania is affected by advancing land use and land cover changes (LULCC), where we observe a conflict between development interests and the necessity of conservation measures to maintain the functionalities of the ecosystem. Thus, assessing patterns of LULCC is crucial to foresee potential future developments and to develop sustainable future management strategies. In this study, we use a multi-method scenario approach to assess the spatial implications and underlying driving forces of potential change by (1) developing a System Dynamics Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) to disentangle the underlying socio-economic and ecologic driving forces, (2) deriving a qualitative business-as-usual (BAU) and a conservation scenario from participatory narratives elaborated during a stakeholder workshop, and (3) quantifying the spatial implications of these scenarios with the Land Change Modeler (LCM). Results indicate that under the BAU assumption only 37% of the natural vegetation is expected to persist until 2030 in the wetland. In contrast, strict enforcement of protected areas (conservation scenario) halts further conversion of the wetland. However, both scenarios pinpoint considerable expansions of cropland in the western highlands with potentially serious impacts on catchment-wide hydrological processes. The produced qualitative and quantitative outputs reveal hotspots of possible future change and starting points for advisable further research and management interventions.

Proswitz, K., Edward, M. C., Evers, M., Mombo, F., Mpwaga, A., Näschen, K., Sesabo, J., Höllermann, B. (2021): Complex Socio-Ecological Systems: Translating Narratives in the Kilombero Catchment, Tanzania. Sustainability 2021, 13, 6552. DOI

More CRC News

cover for a webpost

New Publication: Seniority in Midwifery in Tanzania – Medical Local Practices Between Colonial Medicine and Postcolonial Modernization

By Veronica Kimani and Ulrike Lindner (Project C07 Creating Health Futures). Abstract Concepts of seniority and elderhood were important structuring elements in many societies of ...
Read More »
image of a tractor in a field

Vacancy: Postdoctoral Researcher in VolkswagenStiftung Project „Medium-Scale Farmers in Rural Africa: Transformations in Belonging, Property, Kinship and Power“

The project „Medium-Scale Farmers in Rural Africa: Transformations in Belonging, Property, Kinship and Power“ was recently approved for funding by VolkswagenStiftung. The project will investigate the agency ...
Read More »
cover for a website post

Five Future Rural Africa Researchers Featured in Special Issue of Zamani Journal of African Historical Studies

The recently published special issue “Failed Futures” of Zamani: A Journal of African Historical Studies, published by the University of Dar es Salaam, features contributions ...
Read More »
a crop field in rural africa

New Publication: Local and Regional Food Production Diversity are Positively Associated with Household Dietary Diversity in Rural Africa

By Thanh-Tung Nguyen (University of Bonn) and Matin Qaim (Project C08 Job Futures). Abstract Undernutrition and low dietary quality remain widespread issues in Africa. As ...
Read More »

CRC-TRR Public Lecture: Marc Boeckler

Mon | January 13, 2025 | 16:00 – 17:30  CEST Marc Boeckler is Professor of Economic Geography and Global Studies at Goethe University Frankfurt, where ...
Read More »
Scroll to Top