New Publication: Infrastructural Promises and the Non-Economy of Anticipation – Lessons from the Thwake Dam

In this article, Arne Rieber, Eric Kioko and Theo Aalders (Project C03 Green Futures) examine how the promises of large-scale infrastructure projects shape community aspirations and speculative investments, using the Thwake Dam in Kenya as a case study. Their article highlights how stagnation, uncertainty, and irregularities during construction lead to a “non-economy of anticipation” and it is argued that the misuse of promises and project opacity create infrastructural violence even before the project’s completion.

The Non-Economy of Anticipation in the Construction Phase of Large Dams

By Arne Rieber, Eric Kioko and Theo Aalders

Abstract
Large-scale infrastructure projects often include government promises and visions designed to win the approval and support of affected populations and to attract much-needed funding for implementation. The promise of infrastructure leads to changes in the visions and aspirations of affected communities, and fuels anticipatory and speculative investment to tie one’s future to the perceived benefits of the project. In this article, we explore the process of translating promises into materiality. The construction phase of megaprojects has received comparatively limited scholarly attention, yet it is critical for understanding the socio-technical and socio-political relations of infrastructure. Using the construction phase of the Thwake Dam in Kenya as a case study, we show how the stagnation, uncertainty, and irregularities that characterize the implementation of large dams lead to a decline in initially dynamic anticipatory investment, resulting in what we call the “non-economy of anticipation.” We argue that the misuse of infrastructural promises and the opacity of project implementation lead to infrastructural violence long before the actual realization and apart from the materiality of the dam.



Reference

Rieber, A., Kioko, E. M., Aalders, T. 2025. The non-economy of anticipation in the construction phase of large dams”, Journal of Political Ecology 32(1): 6117. DOI

More CRC News

landscape in northern Kenya

How Violence has Evolved into a Political Technique of Territorial Control in Northern Kenya

In this study, Evelyne Atieno Owino uses assemblage theory to examine how devolution has transformed the logic of pastoral conflict from reciprocal raiding into a ...
Read More »
poster for a webinar with clemens greiner at stellenbosch university

Harnessing of Steam: Geothermal Energy, Ancillary Infrastructure and Scalar Challenges in Kenya – Webinar with Clemens Greiner

Thu | March 26th, 2026 | 15:00 (SAST) Clemens Greiner (Project C02 “Energy Futures”) will be presenting his project’s insights on geothermal energy in Kenya ...
Read More »
cover for a web post

Railway Construction and Changing Conflict Dynamics in Kilosa, Tanzania

Conrad Schetter, Lucy Massoi and Venance Shillingi (Project B03 “Violent Futures”) analyse conflict dynamics between Parakuyo pastoralists and Kaguru and Sagara farmers in Kilosa, Tanzania, ...
Read More »
image shows the lush, green vegetation of mau forest in kenya

New Study Sheds Light on Conservation, Eviction, and Conflict in Kenya’s Mau Forest

In this study, Marie Müller-Koné and Kennedy Mkutu (Project B03 “Violent Futures”) examine how state-led forest conservation efforts in Kenya’s Mau Forest—especially evictions of forest ...
Read More »
Road and bridge in Kenya

Who Gets the Roads? Study Reveals Political Drivers of Infrastructure Investment in Kenya

In this study, Vincent Moseti, Lisa Biber-Freudenberger and Jan Börner (Project A05 “Future Roads”) investigate in how far politics influences where roads are built in ...
Read More »
Scroll to Top