New Publication: Displaced Futures or Futures in Displacement? Anticipations Around the Proposed High Grand Falls Dam in Kenya

By Arne Rieber (Project C03 Green Futures), Theo Aalders (Project C03 Green Futures) and Kenn Munene.

Abstract

At COP27, the Kenyan and UK governments signed a climate finance agreement to accelerate the implementation of the High Grand Falls mega-dam on Tana River. Communities living near the dam site have been anticipating the dam construction since the post-independence era. The plans have been revived in the context of Kenya’s Vision 2030. In this article, we contribute to the literature on imagined futures and economies of anticipation by examining how potentially affected households navigate the state of uncertainty that is formed by threating images of displacement. The analysis highlights concerns about (non-)compensation and the vulnerability of households with insecure tenure arrangements in the context of infrastructure developments. We outline how the capacity to anticipate is a decisive factor in preparing for a future in displacement and how economies of anticipation emerge most notably around the land market. The article contributes to the concept of future-making in infrastructure studies. By presenting displacement as a multi-temporal process, we show how anticipated infrastructures have shaped and continue to shape the socio-economic developments of affected regions.



Reference

Rieber, A., Aalders, T., Munene, K. 2025. Displaced futures or futures in displacement? Anticipations around the proposed High Grand Falls Dam in Kenya,
Futures, Volume 166, DOI



More CRC News

landscape in northern Kenya

How Violence has Evolved into a Political Technique of Territorial Control in Northern Kenya

In this study, Evelyne Atieno Owino uses assemblage theory to examine how devolution has transformed the logic of pastoral conflict from reciprocal raiding into a ...
Read More »
poster for a webinar with clemens greiner at stellenbosch university

Harnessing of Steam: Geothermal Energy, Ancillary Infrastructure and Scalar Challenges in Kenya – Webinar with Clemens Greiner

Thu | March 26th, 2026 | 15:00 (SAST) Clemens Greiner (Project C02 “Energy Futures”) will be presenting his project’s insights on geothermal energy in Kenya ...
Read More »
cover for a web post

Railway Construction and Changing Conflict Dynamics in Kilosa, Tanzania

Conrad Schetter, Lucy Massoi and Venance Shillingi (Project B03 “Violent Futures”) analyse conflict dynamics between Parakuyo pastoralists and Kaguru and Sagara farmers in Kilosa, Tanzania, ...
Read More »
image shows the lush, green vegetation of mau forest in kenya

New Study Sheds Light on Conservation, Eviction, and Conflict in Kenya’s Mau Forest

In this study, Marie Müller-Koné and Kennedy Mkutu (Project B03 “Violent Futures”) examine how state-led forest conservation efforts in Kenya’s Mau Forest—especially evictions of forest ...
Read More »
Road and bridge in Kenya

Who Gets the Roads? Study Reveals Political Drivers of Infrastructure Investment in Kenya

In this study, Vincent Moseti, Lisa Biber-Freudenberger and Jan Börner (Project A05 “Future Roads”) investigate in how far politics influences where roads are built in ...
Read More »
Scroll to Top